New Seat Details - Selby and Ainsty

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Selby and Ainsty been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	32,923	58.7%
LAB	19,151	34.2%
LIB	2,293	4.1%
UKIP	1,710	3.0%
CON Majority	13,772	24.6%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Selby and Ainsty: Map

List of old seats forming part of Selby and Ainsty

Old seat: Selby and Ainsty

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Selby and Ainsty, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Selby and Ainsty				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Harrogate	Marston Moor	2,251	Selby and Ainsty	1,041	429	179	34	0	0	0	0	1,683
Harrogate	Ouseburn	2,478	Selby and Ainsty	1,511	523	74	42	0	0	0	0	2,150
Harrogate	Ribston	2,362	Selby and Ainsty	1,210	358	153	31	0	0	0	0	1,752
Harrogate	Spofforth with Lower Wharfedale	2,443	Selby and Ainsty	1,260	348	104	98	0	0	0	0	1,810
Selby	Appleton Roebuck and Church Fenton	4,422	Selby and Ainsty	2,250	965	97	56	0	0	0	0	3,368
Selby	Barlby Village	2,072	Selby and Ainsty	796	775	74	36	0	0	0	0	1,681
Selby	Brayton	4,721	Selby and Ainsty	2,255	1,145	151	80	0	0	0	0	3,631
Selby	Byram and Brotherton	2,196	Selby and Ainsty	778	794	55	116	0	0	0	0	1,743
Selby	Camblesforth and Carlton	4,498	Selby and Ainsty	2,092	1,049	108	229	0	0	0	0	3,478
Selby	Cawood and Wistow	2,404	Selby and Ainsty	1,164	506	65	31	0	0	0	0	1,766
Selby	Derwent	4,270	Selby and Ainsty	2,128	853	121	67	0	0	0	0	3,169
Selby	Eggborough	2,153	Selby and Ainsty	1,026	595	62	46	0	0	0	0	1,729
Selby	Escrick	1,903	Selby and Ainsty	1,076	357	42	26	0	0	0	0	1,501
Selby	Hambleton	2,090	Selby and Ainsty	982	445	48	28	0	0	0	0	1,503
Selby	Monk Fryston	2,322	Selby and Ainsty	1,145	530	53	33	0	0	0	0	1,761
Selby	Riccall	1,896	Selby and Ainsty	784	487	61	29	0	0	0	0	1,361
Selby	Selby East	4,450	Selby and Ainsty	1,520	2,108	146	93	0	0	0	0	3,867
Selby	Selby West	6,581	Selby and Ainsty	2,341	2,532	212	359	0	0	0	0	5,444
Selby	Sherburn in Elmet	5,023	Selby and Ainsty	2,034	1,649	157	87	0	0	0	0	3,927
Selby	South Milford	2,045	Selby and Ainsty	856	406	52	27	0	0	0	0	1,341
Selby	Tadcaster	5,677	Selby and Ainsty	2,678	1,254	163	90	0	0	0	0	4,185
Selby	Thorpe Willoughby	2,188	Selby and Ainsty	914	576	62	35	0	0	0	0	1,587
Selby	Whitley	2,240	Selby and Ainsty	1,082	467	54	37	0	0	0	0	1,640
	Total	72,685		32,923	19,151	2,293	1,710	0	0	0	0	56,077

The full details of these calculations are given on the Selby and Ainsty seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Selby and Ainsty

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Selby and Ainsty
Harrogate	Marston Moor	2,273	Selby and Ainsty	1,041	429	179	34	0	0	0	0	1,683
Harrogate	Ouseburn	2,905	Selby and Ainsty	1,511	523	74	42	0	0	0	0	2,150
Harrogate	Ribston	2,367	Selby and Ainsty	1,210	358	153	31	0	0	0	0	1,752
Harrogate	Spofforth with Lower Wharfedale	2,445	Selby and Ainsty	1,260	348	104	98	0	0	0	0	1,810
Selby	Appleton Roebuck and Church Fenton	4,551	Selby and Ainsty	2,250	965	97	56	0	0	0	0	3,368
Selby	Barlby Village	2,272	Selby and Ainsty	796	775	74	36	0	0	0	0	1,681
Selby	Brayton	4,905	Selby and Ainsty	2,255	1,145	151	80	0	0	0	0	3,631
Selby	Byram and Brotherton	2,354	Selby and Ainsty	778	794	55	116	0	0	0	0	1,743
Selby	Camblesforth and Carlton	4,700	Selby and Ainsty	2,092	1,049	108	229	0	0	0	0	3,478
Selby	Cawood and Wistow	2,387	Selby and Ainsty	1,164	506	65	31	0	0	0	0	1,766
Selby	Derwent	4,281	Selby and Ainsty	2,128	853	121	67	0	0	0	0	3,169
Selby	Eggborough	2,335	Selby and Ainsty	1,026	595	62	46	0	0	0	0	1,729
Selby	Escrick	2,028	Selby and Ainsty	1,076	357	42	26	0	0	0	0	1,501
Selby	Hambleton	2,030	Selby and Ainsty	982	445	48	28	0	0	0	0	1,503
Selby	Monk Fryston	2,380	Selby and Ainsty	1,145	530	53	33	0	0	0	0	1,761
Selby	Riccall	1,839	Selby and Ainsty	784	487	61	29	0	0	0	0	1,361
Selby	Selby East	5,225	Selby and Ainsty	1,520	2,108	146	93	0	0	0	0	3,867
Selby	Selby West	7,357	Selby and Ainsty	2,341	2,532	212	359	0	0	0	0	5,444
Selby	Sherburn in Elmet	5,305	Selby and Ainsty	2,034	1,649	157	87	0	0	0	0	3,927
Selby	South Milford	1,811	Selby and Ainsty	856	406	52	27	0	0	0	0	1,341
Selby	Tadcaster	5,655	Selby and Ainsty	2,678	1,254	163	90	0	0	0	0	4,185
Selby	Thorpe Willoughby	2,144	Selby and Ainsty	914	576	62	35	0	0	0	0	1,587
Selby	Whitley	2,216	Selby and Ainsty	1,082	467	54	37	0	0	0	0	1,640
	Total	75,765		32,923	19,151	2,293	1,710	0	0	0	0	56,077

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Selby and Ainsty. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Nigel Adams (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,765
Turnout:	74.0%

Selby and Ainsty: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Selby and Ainsty: Overview

Introduction

Calculation method

Selby and Ainsty: Map

List of old seats forming part of Selby and Ainsty

Old seat: Selby and Ainsty

New seat: Selby and Ainsty